General Overview:

Risk assessment bridges the geo-hazards to their societal consequences. As such, it constitutes the most outward-facing component in the chain, starting from gathering the data and modeling the phenomenon towards understanding its consequences. This is where models meet reality; and the reality is invariably complex and multi-risk. In the past decades, the scientific community has established an understanding of single hazards and their direct consequences. However, there is still a lot to explore regarding the complex interactions between hazards and their consequences on society, those situations in which the union is larger than the simple mathematical sum, and where a direct cause and effect pattern can be sometimes difficult to establish.

In this session, we provide a brief outlook through some of the challenges that we face in multi-hazard and multi-risk analysis of geohazards and their consequences. We would like to address questions such as:

• What are the challenges, needs and gaps as seen from the “real world”? What is the point of view of stakeholders and the private sector?
• How can we make the most of multidisciplinary datasets?
• Towards multi-hazard or hazard-agnostic exposure models? Can multi-hazard vulnerabilities be possibly harmonised?
• What is the future of earthquake ground motion models?
• Which are the challenges for time-dependent seismic hazard assessment? Can short-term forecasting become operational?
• How to capture the interactions between slow-onset (e.g., sea-level rise, ageing, heat waves) and fast-onset events (e.g., tsunami, earthquakes, landslides)?
• Cross-cutting: how can Machine learning and AI help us with the above challenges?
• How to communicate our research with a broader audience?

Conveners:

• Laurentiu Danciu (ETH Zurich)
• Adrien OTH (ECGS)
• Fatemeh Jalayer (UC London)