ETRiS - Geo-INQUIRE online training course: Empirical fragility and vulnerability curves for risk analysis (VA2-35-1)

Date and time: Monday and Tuesday, 06 and 07 November 2023, from 9:00 to 11:00 CET

Location: Virtual training course

Presentation material

Day 1 - Fatemeh Jalayer: slides (pdf, open or download the file) and recording (mp4, watch or download the video)

Day 2 - Hossein Ebrahimian Cheleh Khaneh: slides (pdf, open or download the file) and recording (mp4, watch or download the video)

We have in program training and user testing for European Tsunami Risk Service(VA2-35-1)( datasets: Empirical Risk Products –Fragility and Vulnerability Curves. This is a two-day virtual user-testing and training, hosted by University College London‘s Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, taking place on Monday and Tuesday, 06 and 07 November 2023, from 9:00 to 11:00 Central European Time (CET). This two-day course marks UN’s World Tsunami Awareness day on 5th of November. It is, however, to note that the skills and know-how covered by this course are applicable to any kind of natural hazard (e.g., seismic, flood, hurricane, etc).

Excellent science is enabled and enriched through making the relevant scientific research tools and results directly accessible to the scientific communities and the civil societies. The European Tsunami Risk Service (ETRiS) aims to collect, harmonize and make available tsunami risk related data (e.g., impact, damage, consequences), data products (e.g., fragility and vulnerability curves), software, and services in a way that they are findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable by a broad user base. The European Tsunami Risk Service is part of the candidate Thematic Core Service for tsunami and is integrated into the Integrated Core Service Data Portal of the European Plate Observing System (EPOS).

The learning goals of this training are:

  • To get familiar with the underlying concepts of probabilistic hazard and risk analysis assuming a Homogenous Poisson Process;
  • To get an overview of empirical fragility assessment, uncertainty treatment, and fragility model selection using generalized regression models;
  • To learn how to derive vulnerability functions based on fragility curves and consequence models
  • To use data products such as fragility and vulnerability curves for probabilistic risk analysis;

ETRiS and Geo-INQUIRE welcome anyone interested in learning about these concepts and tools, particularly early-career students, researchers, and catastroph modellers.

We promote equality, diversity and inclusion under the advice of the Equality, Diversity and Inclusion Panel at all events organized as part of Geo-INQUIRE. In particular, we support registrations from women, early career scientists and people from widening countries.

The European Tsunami Risk Service (VA2-35-1)( is a virtual access installation of the multi-risk products within the Horizon Europe Project Geo-INQUIRE funded by the European Commission under project number 101058518 within the HORIZON-INFRA-2021-SERV-01 call.


Monday, 06 November 2023, from 9:00 to 11:00 CET (F. Jalayer, UCL)

  • Introduction to:
    • The forward probabilistic risk formulation;
    • Damage scales;
    • Fragility curves for a class of exposed asset;
    • The definition of empirical fragility curves;
    • The definition of Vulnerability curves;
    • Empirical fragility assessment using generalized regression models;
    • Bayesian Model Class selection for choosing the best fragility model

Tuesday, 07 November 2023, from 9:00 to 11:00 CET (H. Ebrahimian, UNINA)

  • Interactive practical session using ETRIS software and datasets:
    • Application to empirical fragility and vulnerability assessment based on survey data from past tsunami events;
    • How to choose the best fragility model?
    • How to compare fragility curves for similar classes of buildings?
    • How to use the fragility and vulnerability curves to calculate risk?


Fatemeh Jalayer:

Hossein Ebrahimian Cheleh Khaneh: